Brazil says China won’t immediately replace U.S. coffee market lost to tariffs

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The implementation of the 50% tariff announced by U.S. President Donald Trump has set off alarms in Brazil’s coffee sector. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) stressed on Wednesday that, despite diversification efforts, China cannot replace the U.S. coffee market in the short term.

The United States buys around 30% of Brazil’s coffee exports, 8.1 million bags in 2024, representing roughly one-third of U.S. consumption. This makes it an irreplaceable trading partner in the near term. In comparison, China ranks 14th, purchasing 939,000 bags in 2024, a gap that highlights the challenge ahead.

While Beijing’s recent decision to authorize 183 new Brazilian companies to export coffee is seen as a diplomatic and commercial step forward, Cecafé clarified that “this does not mean automatic sales.” Effective trade depends on commercial agreements, logistical arrangements, and the continued development of China’s coffee market, which, while expanding, remains far smaller than the U.S. market.

In June alone, the U.S. imported 440,000 bags of Brazilian coffee, compared to just 56,000 sent to China. Analysts say that even with accelerated consumption growth, China cannot absorb the volume of coffee that will be redirected from the U.S. due to tariffs.

Brazil is seeking to deepen trade ties with China, its largest partner in other sectors like soybeans, iron ore, and beef. Coffee, however, presents a unique challenge; it is still a relatively new beverage for Chinese consumers, who traditionally prefer tea. Nevertheless, the rise of coffee shop chains and interest in specialty coffee offer medium-term opportunities.

Meanwhile, Brazil continues talks with Washington in hopes of securing a tariff reduction to 10% for certain products, as proposed in April. Exporters and government officials are also exploring strategies such as expanding sales in Asia and the Middle East, and boosting domestic consumption.

For Cecafé, this crisis is both a short-term challenge and an opportunity to rethink Brazil’s coffee trade strategy. “China is a strategic partner, but not an immediate replacement,” a spokesperson said, underscoring the view that the Brazil-China coffee relationship will be built gradually, not as an emergency fix.

* Original text in Spanish. Translated by Large Language Model (LLM) technology.

Main Source:

Cafeteros de Brasil creen que China no supone alternativa para el mercado de EE. UU. – Portafolio

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