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According to Sergio Ortiz, an academic at the TEC de Monterrey Business School, the economic and trade relationship between Mexico and China, although tense, continues to progress mainly in the area of Asian exports to Mexico, while Chinese investment in the country remains limited.
Ortiz explains that economic growth between the two countries has been primarily driven by foreign trade, with a notable increase in Chinese exports. However, Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico has not reached significant levels, despite the potential for investment from the Asian country.
Ortiz highlights that the trade conflict between the United States and China has created opportunities for Chinese exports to Mexico, as foreign trade between the two countries has grown exponentially over the last 20 years. Nevertheless, the trade balance remains disproportionate, with a clear advantage for China, where for every 11 dollars the Asian country exports, Mexico only exports one. This imbalance is partly due to China's specialization in high-tech products and automobiles, sectors in which Mexico has less participation.
Despite the growing importance of bilateral trade, the commercial relationship between Mexico and China remains tense. Ortiz points out that, although Mexico grants contracts to Chinese companies, it will not lean towards China in the context of the conflict with the United States. The Chinese might be interested in a free trade agreement with Mexico, but this does not seem likely in the short term, even though China remains Mexico's second-largest trading partner due to its efficiency in exports.
Finally, Ortiz criticizes the optimistic rhetoric surrounding nearshoring or the relocation of investments to Mexico, which has been more of a "hope" than a tangible reality. FDI figures do not reflect a significant increase as a result of this phenomenon. Factors such as insecurity and the lack of reliable energy infrastructure have deterred investors, who are unwilling to take risks if they perceive threats like cargo theft or unstable energy supply.
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