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According to a report by Ukr Agro Consult, in the context of the ongoing trade conflict between the People's Republic of China and the United States in 2025, Brazil is expected to increase its exports of soybeans and soy-based food products to the former, as well as to countries in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
Daniel Amaral, Director of Economics and Regulatory Affairs at Abiove, stated that Brazil’s record soybean harvest reaches approximately 170 million tons, a figure that would also contribute to the development of supply chains.
She also noted that, due to Brazil’s strong trade relations with partners around the world and its export capacity in various products, the trade conflict between China and the United States could, rather than harming Brazil, serve to boost the country’s agribusiness sector. However, she pointed out that tariff-related issues are highly variable, making it difficult to assess the potential consequences of the conflict.
Nonetheless, as Brazil is the most significant exporter and importer of soybeans in multilateral trade, buyers are expected to view it as a reliable supplier of the crop, which would help sustain the upward trend in production.
She further mentioned that these record soybean export figures in 2025 are likely to significantly contribute to the growth of the country's agribusiness sector GDP. Additionally, she announced that, due to President Lula da Silva’s decision to maintain the mandatory biodiesel content at 14%, soybean oil exports may also see an increase.
Similarly, Amaral highlighted that, due to the reduction in biodiesel content in the fuel mix, Brazil will need to acquire more fossil fuels, as between 20% and 25% of its domestic consumption was imported.
Finally, she stated that the prices of domestically refined oil, which had led the government to halt the increase in biodiesel content for 2025, have begun to decline. This trend could allow the government to revisit its plans to raise the biodiesel blend to 15%.
Main Source:
Brazil to boost soybean exports to China amid trade war – Ukr Agro Consult
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